Today's Comments # 2: Cambodian-Thai Relations, What Next?

Bangkok 05 January 2011 -- LyKC's Today's Comments #2

In the last two years plus, Cambodia and Thailand had a rather rocky bilateral relations; recalling ambassadors and several deadly border armed clashes were obviously the low point of the bilateral relations between the two neighboring countries . Just when we thought the relations began to improve at the end of 2010,  a border trespass incident took place and led to the arrest of the seven Thais including a Bangkok MP of Thailand’s ruling Democat Party.

Any border incidents could potentially renew tense diplomatic relations between the two Asean member countries. The arrest case has fueled speculations and debates over how it may impact the two countries’ relations and how it may threaten to push the countries’ relations back to square one by undoing the latest hard-earned diplomatic achievement that has recently helped ease the strained ties.

Thailand called on Cambodia for immediate and unconditional release of the detainees. The effort seemingly turned out futile as Thailand’s top diplomat sent to negotiate with Phnom Penh returned empty handed. The reason for Thai PM Aphisit to made such a call -- even Phnom Penh had made it clear that the court should proceed with its legal procedures-- should be left to political scientists/analysts to thoroughly debate it. But Phnom Penh's rejection of Thailand's  demand seemingly stems from the former's desire to maintain the rule of law and its mature posture in its international relations. Whether one likes it or not, Phnom Penh’s move will naturally, as a by-product, help boost the Cambodian government's legitimacy.
 
Will pardoning be an option after Cambodian court has finished its legal procedure? Highly likely. Cambodia had released three Thai nationals charged with illegal entry and spying as a gesture of goodwill to celebrate the 60th anniversary of  the established diplomatic relations. There is no reason that Cambodia will not do the same this time for the sake of improved relations it has desired. It is all the more reason for pardoning as one of the seven detainees currently held in Cambodian prison is a ruling Democat Party's MP.

If Cambodia refused to pardon the jailed Thais and made them serve out their prison terms, the relations might, then, take a turn for the worse as Thailand may up its pressure -- including possible deployment of more troops a long the border areas -- to secure the release of those Thais. Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya was talking about  backup plans, if Cambodia rejected the demand for release, before departing for Cambodia. The bilateral ties may be at risk as Kasit -- [if he was not misquoted] -- has expressed his intention to ask the Thai Cabinet to review the relations with Cambodia if the detainee issue shows no progress. His threat or ultimatum –or whatever you call – is clealy intended to put pressure on Cambodia to release the detainees sooner. Or it could be that domestic political force that is mounting pressure on him and/or the government explains the motive behind his making the threat.

One may question if Bangkok has learnt any lessons at all when it comes to dealing with Phnom Penh. Using threat or unreasonable pressure on a sovereign state -- however weak it may be -- may not win the heart and mind of the leader of the country, not to mention unwelcome repercussions it may produce. It is hard to understand -- unless there is a hidden political agenda -- if some Thai policians still believe that pressure or threat can, somehow, achieve thier objectives when it comes to dealing with Phnom Penh.

Cambodian mainstream media often cites Thailand’s internal politics as one of the main reasons for the recently strained ties. If the latest border trespass indicent were driven by Thai domestic politics as perceived, Cambodia would face yet another diplomatic challenges it needs to carefully deal with Bangkok. Pre-empting any attempts to drag Cambodia into Thailand's polarized politics is seemingly the best move for Cambodia.

Bangkok -- because of the failure to secure timely release of those detainees -- has come under strong criticism and pressure. People’s Alliance for Democracy [PAD] has vowed to rally until those Thais are freed. Any PAD’s inappropriate  rally may further complicate Abhisit’s effort to secure quick release. Thailand’s opposition Puea Thai Party has also pressured the Thai Government to clarify the trespass incident. Additionally, both the oppostion and PAD have, naturally, criticised the Thai Government for  handling the detainee issue “poorly” or “not doing enough” to help the detained Thais.

The threat to review the bilateral ties, and domestic pressure pose serious challenges to the Abhisit  administration in its effort to tackle the detainee issue. The threat to review the ties with Cambodia  may upset Phnom Penh, which in turn potentially causes delay in securing release of all the detainees.  If PAD made good on promise to rally everyday to pressure the government on the issue, the latter would have to effectively deal with it before the rally could degenerate into violence that was a common sight on the streets of Bangkok in the recent past. The Abhisit government needs to seriously juggle between maintaining goods relations with Cambodia and achieving its domestic political objectives.

It may be politically tempting for Thailand to use nationalist sentiments as a potent political tool to achieve political ambitions. But doing responsible politics -- badly needed in our today's often murky world of politics -- is essential for promoting healthy relations between the two countries. It is, without a doubt, in the best interest of the overwhelming majority of ordinary Cambodian and Thai citizens who have so much to benefit from each other.
 
It may sound simplistic, but, as things stand now, there is no better alternative than depoliticizing the border issue and focusing the resolution primarily on the existing technical and legal means as it will help make the border settlement less comlicated. With both countries’ genuine intention and goodwill, Cambodia and Thailand will be able to tranform the border into a peaceful and prosperous one, so the peoples of both countries can enjoy perpetual peace.