Commentary: ASEAN, Indonesia, and Cambodia Should Not Be Too Optimistic on the Package Measures

11 May 2011 -- Reaksmei Kampuchea in Khmer
Original Khmer version by Previn
English version by LyKC

It looks as though Indonesia has run out of patience with Thailand's protest ahead of the package measures in an attempt to send Indonesian observers to the Cambodian-Thai border to observe the ceasefire. In the package measures, Thailand is required to agree to the acceptance of Indonesian observers along with the announcement on the meeting of the Joint Border Committee (JBC) and the General Border Committee (GBC).

The package measure should slightly relieve Indonesia from being too disgraced as ASEAN chair because the failure in mediating the Cambodian-Thai conflict will have negative influence on ASEAN and also on Indonesia as chair. While the package measurers have provided some hope to Cambodia and ASEAN, can the package measures compel Thailand to sign the terms of reference on the dispatch of Indonesian observers to the Cambodian-Thai border?

The possibility is slim given the stance of Thailand's government leaders and military. Less than one day after the agreement of Indonesian, Cambodian, and Thai foreign ministers in Jakarta on 9 May, Abhisit reiterated Bangkok's stance demanding that Cambodia withdraw its troops and people from the area near Preah Vihear temple -- a condition Thailand already knew unacceptable to Cambodia because those troops and people are in Cambodian territory. For its part, the Thai military has issued orders banning the export to Cambodia of oil and a number of other products to Cambodia arguing that Cambodia uses those products against Thailand. From the words of Abhisit and the Thai military, it is reasonable enough to conclude that the Bangkok government will not accept Indonesian observers, at least until after the election in Thailand planned for July 3.

So, why did Aphisit and the Thai military agree to the package plan? It's simply because they had no other choice in order to get themselves out of a corner for the time being. This was what Abhisit and Kasit did earlier at the meeting in February. When the Indonesian president could not get Samdech Decho Hun Sen and Abhisit to agree, he suggested that the two countries' foreign ministers meet for one more day. Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty thus has to try to coordinate an agreement between the foreign ministers of Cambodia and Thailand in order to avoid a total failure.

The package measures show a clear neutral stance but seem to have put pressure on Thailand to agree to the terms of references. The package measures, however, did not clearly say that Thailand has agreed to accept Indonesian observers. Kasit only confirmed that the matter will be submitted to the cabinet for approval, while there are less than two months before the election in Thailand.

Thus, both Cambodia and ASEAN should not pin too much hope on those package measures; this could have been an agreement to simply get out of an impasse. It would not be odd if Thailand signed with a hand and wipe it out with a foot.